10 reasons why Facebook stock may go down to ZERO
Friday, 24 May 2013 09:51
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Have you ever clicked on an ad on facebook? Purchased any game tokens to feed your virtual cows on Farmville? Rented any movies or bought ANYTHING ELSE on facebook? Neither have we. In fact, most people do not seem to even realize there are any ads on facebook, and most have never clicked one. Here are 10 reasons why facebook will probably fail and fail bigtime.
Reason Why Facebook Will Probably Fail #1: The Timeline Layout Sucks
Ever since facebook changed the layout to timeline, the ads have disappeared even more. The ads are still all on the right side column, but take up even less space in the new timeline layout, which is very confusing to read with its side-by-side news feed columns and clunky header, making it impossible to know what to focus on when viewing the page. The old layout had all the main content in the center, with navigation on the left and ads on the right, much more traditional and easier to use.
Reason Why Facebook Will Probably Fail #2: The Failed IPO leads to Envy and Pisses Everyone Off
As soon as facebook's failed IPO made Mark Zuckerberg a trillionaire, and gave the company a $100 billion valuation, the average facebook user got pissed off. Why do a bunch of geeks who run a website that no one pays for deserve to be worth more than Mitt Romney? Wall Streets greed turned users into jealous lovers, stalking their former love but hating them as they became more successful. The post-IPO downward spiral of envy and greed has exposed many of facebook's shortcomings and led people to star using other social networks. They were better off as a private company. Too late now, see you at ZERO.
Reason Why Facebook Will Probably Fail #3: Most Users Are Freeloaders and Will Never Pay A Dime To Use It
You might as well call facebook freeloaderville. For some unknown reason (a mass sense of entitlement?) Internet users seem to think everything online should be free, especially people who use sites like facebook. The web is the biggest invention of all time is very hard to get people to pay. You have to give them something tangible, at a good price, like Amazon.com and eBay and even Netflix, although with their recent mistakes they will likely be gone soon too. Facebook users will never pay to see other peoples boring updates, so as soon as they start charging, every teenager will head over to the next hot free website and facebook will be history.
Reason Why Facebook Will Probably Fail #4: Mark Zuckerberg Is So Rich He Doesn't Have To Listen To Anyone Ever Again
When Wall Street made Mark Zuckerberg one of the richest kids on the planet, they also lost any chance of ever controlling the company. They gave him majority control of the stock, more money than an NBA basketball wife could ever spend, and let him remain as CEO. BIG Mistake. They should have waited, let the company lose some more money as Google and Apple and a million little startups begin to compete, and then offered Zuckerberg a deal he couldn't refuse without the majority control. Now he can and likely will do anything he wants, and after 8 years he till doesn't want to do anything to drive users away, like charging a subscription or doing too much advertising. So facebook is doomed to lose out to others like Google and Twitter who have figured out ways to make ads relevant and work on mobile phones. Now that facebook stock is hovering around $19, Mark Zuckerberg is worth half of what he had at the IPO, but thats still $10 billion. Thats'S $!0 more he has to lose when facebook stock goes to ZERO.
Reason Why Facebook Will Probably Fail #5: Mobile Ads? What Mobile Ads?
Ever click on an ad on your smartphone facebook? You're not alone, in fact half of facebook's users access the site through their mobile phones, and until recently , there were no ads. Plus the apps suck, and Mark Zuckerberg recently admitted the mobile platform is not good enough. But even when it is, the screen size and user behavior indicate that ads will not be too effective or profitable in the near future. Meaning Facebook is paying a fortune for everyone to have free chat and mail and friend updates on their mobile phones, and getting little revenue in return.
Another big reason for the growth of facebook mobile is that bosses and schools are banning use of facebook, so users now have to check their status updates on a mobile phone on the run, at lunch or in the bathroom stall, not a great environment for advertisers.
Reason Why Facebook Will Probably Fail #6: Too Many Fake User Accounts
Many users have separate accounts for business and personal, others have pages for their pets. Have you noticed how many phony school and work accounts there are for people who never went to school and don't work but want to say they did? Do you really believe almost a billion people are on facebook? How many of your friends pages haven't been updated in months or sometimes years? And how many dead people are on facebook that never get taken down? And how many pages are there for people's dead pets? Unless a user removes the page, it is still up there, and it will be, forever.
If the previous wave of user generated content of blogging proves anything, 95% of users will eventually abandon their free accounts and move on to the next big thing, which hopefully will involve more face-to-face interaction. Imagine that, a website called facebook where you never actually meet anyone face to face.
Facebook says about 8% of accounts are fake, but we know some people with dozens of accounts so this number is probably much higher. The fake accounts water down the effect of advertising, make it harder to search, and inflate the size and importance of facebook, or is it fakebook?
Reason Why Facebook Will Probably Fail #7: Their Privacy Policies Are A Joke
If Mark Zuckerberg has proven anything its that nothing you put on facebook is really private for long. Every time they change their privacy policy it seems like you have to go back to facebook to reset your privacy settings back again. And every time you use any app on the site, the app can take and use all your "private" information and share it with others. Which means your new boss will someday see all those drunk weekend pics your best friend posted the last time you all went to Vegas.
Reason Why Facebook Will Probably Fail #8: Teenagers Will Leave And Start Their Own Social Networks
New sites and tools are emerging that will allow anyone to start their own social network, away from all the annoying privacy issues, the baby pictures, the constant useless status updates, you boos, parents, teachers, and anyone else that might not appreciate your unconventional lifestyle and sense of humor. Private networks popped up following Occupy Wall Street, with apps erasing messages, users sharing anonymously, and basically making it harder for people to permanently screw up their lives with one bad post.
Reason Why Facebook Will Probably Fail #9: Investors Who Bought In After The IPO Have a Nickname On Wall Street: ZUCKERS!
Anyone who bought in on Day 1 has lost almost 50% of their investment. Ironically, insiders have cleaned up, sold their shares, and many have moved on to the next big Wall Street scam. Not that facebook is a total scam, you can upload pictures all day long and goof off at work, until the boss decides to block facebook as many companies and schools are doing. But early investor are suing everyone, from Nasdaq for blowing the IPO to the investment banks and facebook management and Mark Zuckerberg for overpricing the stock. Recall that the banks knew that facebook's revenue was slowing and only told a few of their clients about the news before the IPO. So if you really want to make money, don't invest in facebook, create the next one instead, and then take it public.
Maybe facebook should launch a new game called The Angry Investors, and they can shoot rocks at Wall Street for selling them this loser. At least they still get to keep their free facebook accounts.
Reason Why Facebook Will Probably Fail #10: Nobody Really Cares About Your Boring Status Updates
The whole crazy idea of seeing everything that strangers and people you haven't talked to in years and probably never will has gotten really old. Too many people are on this crowded bus, it's not so much fun anymore, and unless you are a stalker it's just not that interesting and can be a huge waste of time.
New apps are being invented every day to block facebook ads and to help your deface facebook pages. One tool allows you to block all this annoying baby pictures and substitute pictures of things you really like, such as bacon. Another lets you add a "Dislike" button to your facebook feed, which is sure to annoy advertisers. Let's face it, nobody really cares about all those "friend" updates, and nobody ever will. Have you noticed all the people will the 1000 "friends?" Now that is fake.
So enjoy facebook while it's still here, one day you can tell your kids how much time you spent looking at all you ex-bf/gf profiles and wishing how much you'd married them instead of the loser you ended up with, if only facebook hadn't duped you into falling in love with the wrong guy or gal. Sigh.
Jill Kennedy has a funny take on the facebook stock situation, see: Facebook And The Disappearing Valuation (A Fairy Tale)
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